(Mult * (HR*Ratio + 2B + 3B) * 1 )
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( (Ratio + 2) AB )
Power = Exp + Round
The number is then truncated (not rounded), and numbers less than one are given a power of 1, numbers greater than 10 given a power of 10.
Explanation:
The exponent factor has to be greater than 1.0 to stretch the high end of the distribution (which creates fewer players with high power). I varied the number between 1.0 and 1.5 until I got a distribution that looked good.
Explanation:
Ratio of HRs to 2Bs and 3Bs. In this case, a HR is worth 3 times a 2B or a 3B. I felt triples should be counted, but the difference between a triple and a double is speed; thus, they count equally. I used 3:1 rather than 4:2 (as you would use in slugging percentage) because 3:1 is the ratio of extra bases. Also, there is the consideration that HRs could have gone much further than doubles. Perhaps HR distances could be factored in in the future.
I think if you added HRs and 2Bs, you 'd find a lot more consistency across a player's career than just looking at HRs alone. Some guys will hit 35 HRs one year, 18 the next. Their 2Bs seem to account for that.
Explanation:
This number is a compromise between the brutal nature of truncation and the liberal nature of rounding from .50 up. 0.2 or 0.3 were my choices. I must admit, the idea came into my head when I saw Hack Wilson have an 8.999 in one scenario.
Explanation:
This number makes the (Extra bases/At Bats) factor greater than 1. It is extra bases per 100 at bats.
The players who changed the most as a result of the formula change.
Team F Last Pos Old New Diff
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Barristers Judy Johnson 3B 6 1 -5
Collective Gil Hodges 1B 9 5 -4
Destroyers Harmon Killebrew 3B 10 6 -4
Frangos Al Rosen 3B 9 5 -4
Hayseeds Buck Leonard 1B 8 4 -4
Nasty One Tony Conigliaro OF 8 4 -4
Steppin Pop Lloyd SS 5 1 -4
The Me Three Davey Johnson 2B 9 5 -4
Ren Bob Horner 3B 8 4 -4
NL East Andre Dawson OF 9 5 -4
Frequencies
Diff Freq Pct
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Plus 1 19 6%
0 78 23%
-1 59 17%
-2 111 33%
-3 64 19%