Last updated:
8:04 PM, 15 January 2017



Jim Miller on Politics

  Email:
jimxc1 at gmail.com



What's he reading? Francis Parkman.

News Compilers
(Why These?)

A&L Daily
Drudge
Hot Air
Jewish World Review
Lexis-Nexis
Lucianne
Mediaite
memeorandum
Monsters and Critics
*newser
Orbusmax
Rantburg
Real Clear Politics
SciTech Daily
Yahoo


Big Media
(Why These?)

Atlantic Monthly
BBC
CNN
Chosen Ilbo
*Daily Mail (UK)
*Deutsche Welle
Fox News
Globe and Mail (CA)
Guardian (UK)
Investor's Business Daily
Le Figaro (FR)
Le Monde (FR)
The Local (Sweden)
National Review
New York Times
The New Yorker
Politico
Seattle PI
Seattle Times
Slate
Slashdot
The Spectator (UK)
Der Spiegel
Telegraph (UK)
Times (UK)
El Universal
U. S. News
USA Today
Wall Street Journal
Washington Examiner
Washington Post
Washington Times


References:

Adherents
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Census Quick Facts
Dave Leip's Election Atlas
FactCheck
Federal Statistics
How Stuff Works
NationMaster
Refdesk
Snopes
StateMaster
Tax Facts
Unionstats
Wikipedia


Smart Media
(Why These?)

ABC News Note
*The American
The American Spectator
Michael Barone
City Journal
Commentary
Front Page Magazine
Michael Fumento
The Hill
Media Research
Michael Medved
New York Sun
Number Watch
PJ Media
Public Interest
Roll Call
Spinsanity
Townhall
The Weekly Standard


Blogs
(Why These?)

My Group Blog:
Sound Politics

Northwest:


The American Empire
AndrewsDad
Chief Brief
Clear Fog Blog
Coffeemonkey's weblog
Croker Sack
"DANEgerus"
Economic Freedom
Federal Way Conservative
Freedom Foundation
Hairy Thoughts
Huckleberry Online
Andy MacDonald
NW Republican
Orcinus
Public Interest Transportation Forum
<pudge/*>
Northwest Progressive Institute
*Progressive Majority
Matt Rosenberg
Seattle Blogger
Seattle Bubble
Washington Policy Center
West Sound Politics
Zero Base Thinking


Other US:


Ace of Spades HQ
Alien Corn
Ann Althouse
American Thinker
The Anchoress
Armies of Liberation
Art Contrarian
"Baldilocks"
Balloon Juice
Baseball Crank
La Shawn Barber
Beldar
Bleat
Bookworm Room
Broadband Politics
Stuart Buck
Keith Burgess-Jackson
*Bush Center
Chef Mojo
Chicago Boyz
Classical Values
*College Insurrection
Confederate Yankee
Jules Crittenden
Daily Pundit
Discriminations
Gregory Djerejian
Daniel W. Drezner
Econlog
Econopundit
Election Law
John Ellis
Engage
Dean Esmay
Gary Farber
Fausta
FiveThirtyEight
Flares into Darkness
Flopping Aces
The Long War Journal
Gateway Pundit
Grasping Reality With Both Hands
Keith Hennessey
Hugh Hewitt
Siflay Hraka
Instapundit
Iowahawk
Joanne Jacobs
Jeff Jarvis
The Jawa Report
Brothers Judd
JustOneMinute
Kausfiles
Kesher Talk
Le-gal In-sur-rec-tion
Little Green Footballs
Megan McArdle
Michelle Malkin
Greg Mankiw
Marginal Revolution
Mazurland
Minding the Campus
The ModerateVoice
*The Monkey Cage Mudville Gazette
"neo-neocon"
Betsy Newmark
Newsbusters
No Watermelons Allowed
Ambra Nykola
*The Optimistic Conservative
The Ornery American
OxBlog
Parapundit
"Patterico"
Daniel Pipes
Polipundit
Political Arithmetik
Political Calculations
Pollster.com
Power and Control
Power Line
Protein Wisdom
QandO
Radio Equalizer
RedState
Riehl World View
Right Wing News
Rightwing Nuthouse
Dr. Sanity
Scrappleface
Screw Loose Change
Linda Seebach
Sense of Events
Joshua Sharf
Rand Simberg
Smart Politics
The Spirit of Enterprise
Stability For Our Time
*Strange Maps
The Strata-Sphere
Andrew Sullivan
Don Surber
Sweetness & Light
Taking Hayek Seriously
TalkLeft
Talking Points Memo
TaxProf
USS Neverdock
VDH's Private Papers
Verum Serum
Villainous Company
Volokh Conspiracy
Washington Monthly
Wizbang
Dr. Weevil
Matt Welch
Winds of Change
Meryl Yourish
zombietime


Canadians:


BlazingCatFur
Colby Cosh
Five Feet of Fury
Kate McMillan
Damian Penny
Bruce Rolston


Latin America:


Babalú
Caracas Chronicles
The Devil's Excrement
Venezuela News and Views


Overseas:


"Franco Aleman"
Bruce Bawer
Biased BBC
Tim Blair
*Andrew Bolt
Peter Briffa
Brussels Journal
Butterflies and Wheels
Crooked Timber
Davids Medienkritik
Egyptian Sand Monkey
EU Referendum
Greenie Watch
Guido Fawkes
Harry's Place
Mick Hartley
Oliver Kamm
JG, Caesarea
*Le Monde Watch
¡No-Pasarán!
Fredrik Norman
Melanie Phillips
*Political Betting
John Ray
samizdata
Shark Blog
Natalie Solent
Somtow's World
Bjørn Stærk
Laban Tall
*David Thompson
Michael Yon

Science Blogs:
The Blackboard
Cliff Mass Weather
Climate Audit
Climate Depot
Climate Science
*Judith Curry
Future Pundit
Gene Expression
The Loom
In The Pipeline
Roger Pielke Jr.
Real Climate
A Voyage To Arcturus
Watts Up With That?

Media Blogs:
Andrew Malcolm
Dori Monson
David Postman
Rhetorical Ammo
Tierney Lab
*White House Dossier

R-Rated:
Horse's A**
Huffington Post

*new



Pseudo-Random Thoughts

France Has A Catholic Vote:  Who knew?

For those who haven't been following French politics for fifty years, that question may seem a little odd.  After all, France has been nominally Catholic for more than 1500 years and, even now, somewhere between 55 and 60 percent of the French consider themselves Catholic.

But it is also true that, for more than a century, French governments have adhered to a policy of laïcité.
. .. . a French concept of secularism.

It encourages the absence of religious involvement in government affairs, especially the prohibition of religious influence in the determination of state policies; it is also the absence of government involvement in religious affairs, especially the prohibition of government influence in the determination of religion.[1][2]
(In 2005, I argued that many Democrats would like to see the United States follow a similar policy.)

So strong was this feeling, especially on the left, that the two should be separated that once, when François Mitterrand was photographed in front of a historic church, the cross on the church was carefully airbrushed out of the photograph.

You don't have to be a political genius to recognize that a leader might see all that latent support for Catholicism in France, and appeal to it.

And one has: François Fillon, now the nominee of the Republican Party, and the favorite to win this year's presidential election.

You can find a description of how Fillon has been appealing to French Catholics in this Wall Street Journal article.

Two issues appear to have energized them, the rise of radical Islam and — gay marriage.

One important detail:  Fillon has been arguing that the French government should do more to protect Middle East Christians.  That's not an argument that would appeal to many Democratic leaders, in this country.  Or many journalists, almost anywhere.

(Here's an earlier post on Fillon, where I said I was trying to make sense of him.  I'm still working on that problem, though the Journal article did help.)
- 8:04 PM, 14 January 2017   [link]


- 7:54 AM, 15 January 2017   [link]


How To Think About The Trump "Russian Dossier"   We now know a fair amount about why the dossier was written.  It began as Republican opposition research on Trump, and then, after Trump won the nomination, became Democratic opposition research.

We know who put it together (and probably did much of the research), a former MI6 agent, Christopher Steele.  He has, according to a number of sources, including the FBI and Andrew Mount, a former British ambassador to Russia, a good reputation.

After the dossier was written, it was distributed to many news organizations.

Why?

I think the answer is obvious:  Steele, and his employer(s), hoped that the news organizations would use the dossier for leads to big stories.

As far as I know, no such big stories have emerged — yet.

Nor have any news organizations announced that they investigated one of the important charges and found it false — yet.  (There does seem to have been a mistake in an identification, but that's not what I would call an important charge.)

From which I conclude that news organizations have found it difficult to confirm, or deny, any of the charges.

That is, to say the least, unsatisfactory.

But it is where we are likely to be for months, possibly years.

(For further reading, I recommend this Washington Post article on Trump's dealings with Russia over the years and, with way more than the usual caveats, the . Wikipedia article on the dossier.)
- 2:04 PM, 14 January 2017   [link]


What Does The Public Think Of Donald Trump, So Far?  According to Gallup, not much.
In Gallup polling conducted two weeks before Inauguration Day, President-elect Donald Trump continues to garner historically low approval for his transition performance, with 51% of Americans disapproving of how he is handling the presidential transition and 44% approving.   Last month, the public was split on this question, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving.

Trump's 48% transition approval rating in December was already the lowest for any presidential transition Gallup has measured, starting with Bill Clinton's in 1992-1993.   Trump's current rating only further separates him from his predecessors -- particularly Barack Obama, who earned 83% approval for his handling of the transition process in January 2009, up from 75% in mid-December 2008.
Other pollsters have similar findings.

Presidents generally begin the transition with a "honeymoon" period, with higher popularity than they had at the end of the campaign.  That was true, to some extent, even for Trump, but it looks as if this man — who craves public applause — will be getting less and less of it, from the general public.

Which leads me to this prediction:  Within the first six months of his presidency, Trump will start doing campaign events, again.  (As you probably know, he did several of them after the election.)
- 9:48 AM, 13 January 2017   [link]


Obama Fans Won't Like this Michael Ramirez cartoon.

I think it is a little over the top — as many of the best political cartoons are.
- 8:53 AM, 13 January 2017   [link]


Worth Watching:  (With some qualifications.)

Nova's "The Nuclear Option".
Five years after the earthquake and tsunami that triggered the unprecedented trio of meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, scientists and engineers are struggling to control an ongoing crisis.  What’s next for Fukushima?   What’s next for Japan?  And what’s next for a world that seems determined to jettison one of our most important carbon-free sources of energy?
For years, I have been arguing that, if you think global warming is a serious threat — and can do arithmetic — you should favor the expansion of nuclear power.  In the program, Nova gives a reasonably fair hearing to some of the prominent scientists who agree with that position, and describes some of the recent advances in nuclear safety.

(I said with some qualifications.  A full discussion of them would require me watching the program at least one more time, and a longish review.  I don't have time for either now, so I'll just give you the most important:  Greens commonly believe that there are safe "natural" sources of energy, sources that have no environmental consequences.  In fact, there are risks from every method of producing electricity, and environmental costs from every method.

Nova should have said that, explicitly, and should have given us some comparisons.)
- 3:36 PM, 12 January 2017   [link]


Dog Lovers May See A Warning in this cartoon.
- 6:33 AM, 12 January 2017   [link]


Jared Kushner Is Donald Trump's Son-In-Law, And Has Been Chosen By Trump To Be A Top White House Advisor:  To get through the nomination process, Kushner hired a lawyer, Jamie Gorelick.
Kushner’s attorney, WilmerHale partner Jamie Gorelick, said in an interview Monday that Kushner is prepared to resign from his business and divest substantial assets, including foreign investments, before taking a White House position. But Gorelick, who served as deputy attorney general under President Bill Clinton, said she is confident that the anti-nepotism statute does not cover Trump's appointment of Kushner, though she acknowledged that some lawyers take the opposite view.
Yes, that Jamie Gorelick, who has been nicknamed the "mistress of disaster".  (The Wikipedia article does not mention her nickname, but you can see how widespread it has become with a simple search on the phrase.)

This news has filled people on the left and the right with consternation.

It doesn't seem surprising to me, though.  After all, Kushner is a "lifelong Democrat", so it is natural for him to choose a Democratic lawyer with experience in ethical questions — she did work for Bill Clinton — to represent him.

(Incidentally, Kushner's father has led an interesting, if not always legal, life.)
- 8:30 PM, 11 January 2017   [link]


Japan's Demographic Problem:  In a single graph.

Japan' demographic problem

The article has numbers, too:
Since 2010, Japan has experienced net population loss due to falling birth rates and almost no immigration, despite having one of the highest life expectancies in the world at 81.25 years of age as of 2006.[5]  Using the annual estimate for October of each year, the population peaked in 2008 at 128,083,960 and had fallen 285,256 by October 2011.[6]   Japan's population density was 336 people per square kilometer.

Based on 2012 data from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan's population will keep declining by about one million people every year in the coming decades, which will leave Japan with a population of 42 million in 2110.[7]
This is important, not just for Japan, but for the United States and for, I believe, every modern, urban civilization.

What we see in that graph is what will happen, without immigration, in every developed nation, if present trends of increasing urbanization continue.

Other than, possibly, Salt Lake City, I don't know of any large city in the developed world where the total fertility rate is above the break-even point, about 2.1 children per woman.

I have come to believe that living in modern cities inhibits couples from having children.

(I have also come to believe that sheer density — so beloved by city planners — is one of the most important reasons couples living in cities are reluctant to have children.  I don't think it's an accident that America's baby boom came at a time when families were leaving our large cities for the suburbs,)
- 2:02 PM, 11 January 2017   [link]


As I Am Sure Almost All Of You Know By Now, this is the big story in the last 24 hours.
This afternoon, CNN reported that President Barack Obama and President-Elect Donald Trump had been briefed by the intelligence community on the existence of a cache of memos alleging communication between the Trump campaign and Russian officials and the possession by the Russian government of highly compromising material against Trump.  The memos were compiled by a former British intelligence officer on behalf of anti-Trump Republicans and, later, Democrats working against Trump in the general election.  According to CNN, the intelligence officer’s previous work is credible, but the veracity of the specific allegations set forth in the document have not yet been confirmed.
In the rest of the post, Benjamin Wittes, Susan Hennessey, and Quinta Jurecic urge people to "take a deep breath" and wait to see what evidence there is for the claims.

I think it would also be sensible to treat the separate claims separately, since it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a few of them are true, a few of them are partly true, and most of them are products of someone's imagination.  (In the latter case, it would be interesting to know who thought them up, and why,)
- 12:16 PM, 11 January 2017   [link]


This Song Goes Out to President Obama and President-elect Trump.

(Some will want to change the lyrics for Trump, substituting "tweet" for "talk".)
- 10:07 AM, 11 January 2017   [link]


Most Teachers Will Like yesterday's New Yorker cartoon.

Most, but not all.
- 9:56 AM, 11 January 2017   [link]


Archives

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January 2017, Part 1 and Part 2






Coming Soon
  • Plan 17 Conservatives
  • FDR and Waterboarding
  • How Long Do Wars Last?
  • Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, and Crescent Wrenches
  • De-Lawyering and Attorney General McKenna


Coming Eventually
  • JFK and Wiretaps
  • Green Republicans
  • The Rise and Fall and Rise of Black Voting
  • Abortion, Cleft Palates, and Europe
  • Kweisi Mfume's Children
  • Public Opinion During Other US Wars
  • Dual Loyalties
  • The Power Index
  • Baby Dancing
  • Jocks, but no Nerds
  • The Four Caliphs




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