Last updated: 9:13 AM, 3 February 2012 |
Jim Miller on Politics |
Email: jimxc1 at gmail.com |
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Pseudo-Random ThoughtsBernanke's Latest Warning Seems
clear enough.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional panel Thursday that shrinking the deficit "should be a top priority," saying that spending projections over the next decade are "clearly unsustainable."Especially coming from a Federal Reserve chairman. It's clear enough so that even President Obama can understand it. (Past chairmen often spoke obscurely, deliberately. Once a reporter wrote a light piece saying that he could figure our what a chairman was thinking by watching his foot movements. At the next press conference, there was a cloth over the table, hiding the chairman's feet.) - 9:13 AM, 3 February 2012
[link] Hillary Clinton As A Bond Villain? See the
pictures
and judge for yourself.
I like the idea of an American Secretary of State who is thought to be tough, because I think that gives them an edge in negotiations with our adversaries. So, if this new look helps her get the respectful attention of, for example, her Russian counterparts, I am all for it. - 8:53 AM, 3 February 2012
[link] Just So You Can Keep Up With The Important Stories, here's the
sheep-herding
rabbit. Which is, I will admit,
impressive — for a rabbit.
I would guess that the rabbit learned this behavior from the farm's sheep dog. (The video is repetitive — one minute is probably all you will need — and the background song wildly inappropriate.) - 8:09 AM, 3 February 2012
[link] How Many People Go To Party Caucuses?
Not many.
In Nevada four years, ago, less than 3 percent of adults participated in the caucuses. Pollsters using standard sampling techniques would need to screen out virtually all of their initial respondents to identify true likely caucus-goers.The Iowa caucuses have become a quasi-primary, so attendance there has been higher, 5.2 percent and 6.3 percent in 2008 and 2012, respectively. You should correct those numbers in two ways, limiting them to eligible adults and Republicans. Blumenthal does the first, which does not make much difference, but not the second, which does. If we multiply those numbers by three, we can get a rough idea of what percentage of Republicans in those four states go to their party's caucuses, somewhere between 1.5 and 18 percent. (As Blumenthal says, this low turnout makes caucuses even harder for pollsters than primaries.) - 7:01 PM, 2 February 2012
[link] Without Comment: From me, anyway. Here's the lead
paragraph from an
article
on President Obama's remarks at the National Prayer Breakfast.
President Barack Obama has been taking lumps from Republicans for years over his support for Wall Street and health care reform, but today at the National Prayer Breakfast he claimed support from on high to defend two of his most controversial legislative achievements.And here's the White House transcript with the complete remarks. - 6:41 PM, 2 February 2012
Without comment from me,
but not without comment from Keith Koffler, who reminds us that the Obamas were not generous
with their own money,
until he decided to run for president. Even then, giving just 5 percent of your income in
charitable contributions does not seem entirely consistent with what Obama now says he believes.
- 8:41 AM, 3 February 2012
[link] Too Funny To Check: Ron Paul
has a strong connection to . . . . the
Bilderberg Group.
- 2:37 PM, 2 February 2012
[link] Derek Bok On Our "Underachieving Colleges" Ten days ago, I
criticized Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat for proposing that we build a
new university
in this area.
Westneat thought that I was objecting to the public money that would be spent on a new university — and there would be large sums from the taxpayer, even if it were a private university, as he had proposed. Actually, my objection is more fundamental: Before we build another university, we should find out why our universities are failing to educate so many of their students. Westneat strikes me as man who is impressed by credentials, so I will bring in, as a witness for my argument, Derek Bok, twice president of Harvard University. (As far as I can tell, Bok is very respected by his peers.) In 2006, Bok published Our Underachieving Colleges, a book with a modest title, and a set of dismaying conclusions. (If you are going to read it, you may want to find the 2008 paperback version, which has an afterword on his second time as president of Harvard.) In his introduction, Bok summarizes some earlier criticisms and says that, net, college students do learn something — and that many of them are pleased with their college experience. He then gives his own indictment:
I didn't write that; Derek Bok did. But many others could have, and since 2006, a number of researchers have followed up with studies that strengthen Bok's conclusions. How bad is it? Roughly this bad: About thirty or forty percent of the graduates from our colleges and universities get little from their years in college, except some pleasant social experiences — and some very large debts. Those college students who do not graduate — and there are millions of them — learn even less, though they may have almost as many pleasant social experiences — and almost as large debts. Failure on that scale calls for analysis, not replication. Rather than building a new college or university, we need to learn why our current colleges and universities are failing so many of their students. When the first Tacoma Narrows Bridge fell down, we didn't build another one like it, we studied it to see what was wrong with the design. Cross posted at Sound Politics.- 1:40 PM, 2 February 2012
[link] Golfers Will Like this
post.
As will all those who admire how the British behaved during the Battle of Britain. (Suspicious fellow that I am, I checked for references, and found some at Snopes, and the club.) - 9:01 AM, 2 February 2012
[link] "Newt Gingrich's Nevada Campaign Appears In Disarray"
Does that
headline
shock you?
It shouldn't, not if you have been paying even a little attention to Gingrich's long political career. Among other things, he makes always-late Barack Obama look punctual. But our "mainstream" journalists still love him, and probably always will. Partly for that "disarray", which is far more interesting than a well-organized campaign. (Milbank is wrong, of course, when he claims that Gingrich "created the modern era of politics-as-blood-sport". Politics has always been a blood sport, as anyone familiar with ancient Athens or Rome could tell you. And it has always been a blood sport here in the United States, as JFK and LBJ could tell you, if there were phones where they are now.) - 7:33 AM, 2 February 2012
[link] The Next Six States Look Good For Romney: On February
4th, Maine and Nevada will hold caucuses. Romney won both states in 2008.
On February 7th, Minnesota and Colorado will hold caucuses. Romney won both states in 2008. On February 28th, Arizona and Michigan will hold primaries. In 2008, Romney's ally, John McCain, won Arizona, and Romney won Michigan. As of now, I would make Romney the favorite in all six races. If he wins all six, he is almost certain to have enough — and I can't escape the word — momentum to win the nomination. The schedule may be unfair, may skip over states where Gingrich would have a better chances, but it is what it is. That said, caucuses are harder to predict than primaries, which, in turn, are harder to predict than general elections. Caucuses are often dominated by better organizations, more intense activists, or both. Romney probably has the advantage in organization in the caucus states over Gingrich (though not necessarily over Ron Paul), but may not have the advantage in intensity. (Here's the essential data on the next six races. I would discount the PPP poll in Arizona that gave Gingrich a lead there. Again, I think that voters are likely to return to their previous choices. And, of course, Romney's Florida win is likely to help him in Arizona.) - 6:30 AM, 1 February 2012
[link] Obama's Enemies List: Theodore Olsen thinks the Obama
campaign has one, and that his clients, the
Koch brothers,
are on it.
How would you feel if aides to the president of the United States singled you out by name for attack, and if you were featured prominently in the president's re-election campaign as an enemy of the people?The Obama campaign probably doesn't have an actual enemies list, as Nixon did — Obama isn't that organized — but they have treated the Koch brothers, and others, as if they had such a list. This is, from one point of view, simply practical politics. Voters, especially poorly educated voters, respond better to attacks on named villains than to attacks on abstract villains, to attacks on the Koch brothers than to attacks on misbehaving businessmen, generally. And if your named villains do oppose some of your policies, all the better. But it is also destructive, deeply unfair, and risks governmental abuses. For example, someone at the IRS might decide that the Koch brothers deserve unusual scrutiny, after hearing the president attack them. Someone at the EPA might decide that they should check their factories more closely. And so on. Don't expect to hear many "mainstream" journalists make these points, though they would if the parties were reversed. (It should be said that Richard Nixon did have many very real enemies. Some, for example, hated him for being right about Alger Hiss. Others hated Nixon for who he was.) - 5:27 AM, 1 February 2012
[link] Time For A Florida Primary Prediction: Last
Friday,
I predicted that Mitt Romney would win the Florida primary. I came to that conclusion
because he was leading in the polls, I thought public opinion had stabilized, and that,
if anything, Romney was gaining.
Public Policy Polling has seen the stability that I predicted. PPP's tracking of the Florida Republican primary wraps up with Mitt Romney at 39%, Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Ron Paul at 11%. Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day.(In this nomination fight, it seemed safer to predict another wild swing, but that wasn't where my analysis led me.) So, do I just go with that 8 percent that PPP found? No, because there is a complication in polling that Mark Blumenthal spotted. Another round of new polls on the Florida Republican primary race agree on who is comfortably ahead, but disagree on the size of that margin. Six new polls released late Sunday or Monday found that Mitt Romney's lead over Newt Gingrich ranges from five to 20 percentage points.(Emphasis added.) Polls that contact both kinds of phones should be more accurate, so I am going to give them a little extra weight. The current Real Clear Politics poll average margin for Romney is 13.0 percent. I am going to predict that Romney's margin will be a little higher, 14.5 percent. (Blumenthal has a graph showing all the polls, if you want to see the changes.) - 12:58 PM, 31 January 2012
More: Here's
Nate Silver's prediction,
which I had not seen when I wrote this post. It's quite close to mine, though I would say
that his error bounds are too large for both Gingrich and Romney. Silver has an instructive
graph showing how support for Gingrich has declined since the South Carolina primary.
- 1:21 PM, 31 January 2012
My prediction was reasonably close; according to this New York
Times story,
Romney won 46.4 percent of the vote in Florida, and Gingrich 31.9 percent. All right, it
was very close, so close that I have to admit that I was lucky. You can decide whether it was
only luck that let me get that close.
- 5:48 AM, 1 February 2012
[link] Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus Compared Obama To
Captain Schettino: Democratic National Chairman (or is it Chair?) Debbie
Wasserman Schultz complained that the metaphor was unfair.
But Priebus was just copying cartoonists, who have been using the cruise ship in their cartoons, and not always in cartoons directed at Obama. (Me? I think using the cruise ship and its captain is fair, in the rough world of American politics. Saying that Republicans are acting like "terrorists", as Henry Waxman just did, is not.) - 9:57 AM, 31 January 2012
[link] Strike Through Corrections: Occasionally, as I did just below,
I make a correction just by crossing out the error, and adding the correct word or words just
afterwards.
I think that is better in some cases than making a full correction with a new time stamp. Mostly I use it for nasty typos, where I wrote something I didn't intend. As you may or may not have noticed, I make silent corrections on harmless typos like adding a missing word, deleting a duplicate, or correcting a misspelling. I add formal corrections, with added time stamps, when I got a fact wrong, or when I think some essential part of an argument is wrong. I will sometimes rewrite an entire paragraph, or more, for clarity, without adding a time stamp, if I do not think the rewrite changes the meaning. If I think someone I quote is wrong, I will almost always indicate that in the post. If I catch a mistake within a few minutes of putting it up, then I almost always correct it silently. If you think these informal correction rules are too easy, or too hard, please let me know. (Yes, that was a particularly nasty typo — and so I am especially grateful to the friend who caught it.) - 9:38 AM, 31 January 2012
[link] "Chief Touchy-Touchy" Michelle
So, it turns out that the cool cat billed as "No Drama Obama" by his sycophants is actually quite the drama queen. While the White House publicly pretends to ignore conservative detractors of his administration, Chief Touchy-Touchy seems to be personally consumed by our critiques. Yes, mine included.According to the Jodi Kantor's The Obamas, the Obamas and their supporters were annoyed by this from Malkin's book. "[Obama contributor John] Rogers had just noticed a new book by the conservative columnist Michelle Malkin called 'Culture of Corruption: Obama and His Team of Tax Cheats, Crooks and Cronies.' Among many other allegations, Malkin wrote that Michelle Obama — the president's 'bitter half' — was secretly running the country in Lady Macbeth-like fashion. Malkin even took a hatchet to long-dead Fraser Robinson (Mrs. Obama's father), arguing with no evidence that his job at a water plant made him part of the 'Chicago political corruptocracy.' The book debuted at number one on The New York Times nonfiction bestseller list and stayed there for weeks."(Like almost every other city department at that time.) When I learned the basic facts about Fraser Robinson's water plant job, I assumed that he was a patronage worker, hired as a reward for getting votes for the Chicago machine. At that time, blacks, led by Congressman William Dawson, were an essential part of the machine, so essential that Dawson was able to force out a semi-reform mayor, William Kennelly. (There's a good account of that struggle in Mike Royko's biography of the first Mayor Daley, Boss.) And I think that almost anyone else who knows a little about Chicago politics would have come to the same conclusion. And most of us would not think the worse of Fraser Robinson, a man with a family to support, for making that compromise. There is a simple way to reconcile the "cool cat" with the "drama queen"; Obama is cool about the nation and the world, but not about himself. He can be cool when the banking system is collapsing, but not when a governor writes something mildly critical about him. (That Kantor paragraph deepens my suspicion that the book, and the New York Times reporter who wrote it, Jodi Kantor, simply can't be trusted to give us a fair account of the Obamas. And, if the press accounts are correct, even that favorable book annoyed the Obamas.) - 7:52 AM, 31 January 2012
[link] Dorothea Taylor Is One Tough Lady: Even at
86
Dorothea Taylor, 86, was largely unknown outside of Alaska before Jan. 20 when she thumped a moose with a shovel while it attacked her dogs and — she later learned — her husband, George.And, along with the rescue workers who got him to a hospital, saved George's life. - 6:50 AM, 31 January 2012
[link] Republican Nomination Schedule And Scorecard: Real Clear
Politics has a
fine one.
What struck me about it is how varied the rules are for allocating delegates. And how the states between now and "Super Tuesday" (March 6th) mostly favor Mitt Romney. - 12:48 PM, 30 January 2012
[link] Bumper Sticker Seen At Lunch Time:
Embarrassing My Children A Full Time Occupation On the back of a minivan, appropriately. If I had to guess, I would say that minivan belongs to a mother with at least two teenage daughters — they can be so strict with their mothers at that age — and a fine sense of humor. - 12:23 PM, 30 January 2012
[link] Warren Buffett Wouldn't Be Affected by the
"Buffett Rule".
This brings us to the Buffett Rule, which at its heart is a way to raise taxes on dividends and capital gains. Berkshire still doesn't pay a dividend, and as for capital gains taxes, well, Mr. Buffett has already made clear that he'll largely avoid them by transferring his fortune to the Gates Foundation and to charitable trusts controlled by his family. In fact, at the 2010 Berkshire annual shareholders meeting, according to Dow Jones Newswires, Mr. Buffett urged attendees to "follow my tax dodging example" and give away their wealth. Democrats in Washington may enjoy using Mr. Buffett as cover to raise taxes, just as long as they understand that he won't necessarily be paying them.By now, I am no longer surprised at Buffett's tax dodging, while he calls for higher taxes, presumably for other people. But the combination is becoming more and more annoying. (According to Berkshire Hathaway's own reports, the company may owe the IRS about $1 billion in back taxes.) - 8:30 AM, 30 January 2012
[link] Merkel Will Campaign For Sarkozy: That may be a
tactical error.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will "actively support" French President Nicolas Sarkozy, a fellow conservative, in his spring campaign to win re-election, her Christian Democrat (CDU) party in Berlin said.As you know, the French and Germans had a few minor disagreements during the 19th and 20th centuries, which makes it hard for me to believe that her open support will help Sarkozy. And, of course, if Sarkozy loses — as he might — the relationship between Merkel and the new French government may be frosty for while. - 8:04 AM, 30 January 2012
[link] NBC's Brian Williams Said Last Thursday That It Is Wrong To Point Your
Finger At The President: Unless, of course, you are Brian Williams, and the president is
George W. Bush.
That 2006 interview sequence is worth listening to, for what it shows about Brian Williams. He is obviously skeptical about Bush's claims to be a reader, claims that are quite well documented. Presumably, those claims don't fit Williams' picture of Bush, and so you can see him rejecting them, rather than correcting that picture, as a good journalist should do. (I don't watch Brian Williams very often, so I don't know whether he thinks it OK for a male president to grab a woman, when the two are having a disagreement. I am pretty sure he would think that wrong, if the president were George W. Bush.) - 7:33 AM, 30 January 2012
[link] Titillating, But Probably False: That's my opinion on
this story.
Agent Provocateur saw sales jump by more than 12pc, helped by US First Lady Michelle Obama spending $50,000 (£31,794) in one shopping spree.Why do I say it's probably not true? Because it sounds implausible, and because there is no source listed for the claim, not even an anonymous source. The round number, $50,000, also makes me suspect this is gossip, not news. But it is the kind of story that some people like to believe, and when I went searching for the origin of the story, I found translations into several languages. (One possibility is that the story is distorted, that the entire group spent about that much, and that a clerk at the store attributed the entire purchase to Michelle Obama. That amount would not be unprecedented for Gulf royalty. Inquiring minds will want to know what kinds of clothes Agent Provocateur sells; you can see examples here.) - 6:21 AM, 30 January 2012
[link] Climate Change And Accusations Of Scientific Malfeasance: This
open letter,
from sixteen prominent scientists, has drawn most attention for its claim that "a large and growing
number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming
are needed".
But I was most struck by this part of the letter: Although the number of publicly dissenting scientists is growing, many young scientists furtively say that while they also have serious doubts about the global-warming message, they are afraid to speak up for fear of not being promoted—or worse. They have good reason to worry. In 2003, Dr. Chris de Freitas, the editor of the journal Climate Research, dared to publish a peer-reviewed article with the politically incorrect (but factually correct) conclusion that the recent warming is not unusual in the context of climate changes over the past thousand years. The international warming establishment quickly mounted a determined campaign to have Dr. de Freitas removed from his editorial job and fired from his university position. Fortunately, Dr. de Freitas was able to keep his university job.Those are powerful accusations, especially when Lysenko is used in the comparison. Lysenko's "findings" were consistent with Marxism, and were politically useful, so he received powerful backing form the Soviet state. The sixteen are implying that some global warming alarmists, and their political supporters, are behaving similarly. It isn't hard to guess, even if you follow this subject only casually, the names of some of the people they are indicting. - 7:29 PM, 29 January 2012
[link] American Movies And The American Image: Last year, on
Christmas Eve, the Wall Street Journal published a long, and somewhat rambling, column
by Peggy Noonan.
It was long enough so that I almost missed this gem near the end: In Iraq this year I asked an Iraqi military officer doing joint training at an American base what was the big thing he had come to believe about Americans in the years they had been there. He thought. "You are a better people than your movies say." He had judged us by our exports. He had seen the low slag heap of our culture and assumed it was a true expression of who we are.And some in other countries judge us by our Madonnas, and our rap artists — to even worse effect. - 4:22 PM, 29 January 2012
[link] Governor Brewer, Governor Jindal, And Senator Clinton?
Maureen Dowd reminds us that
Hillary Clinton
had an airport encounter with Barack Obama much like Governor Brewer's.
Hillary had sent word that she wanted to talk to Obama. Standing in front of her plane, she apologized to him for the comments of her co-chairman in New Hampshire, Billy Shaheen, who had warned that Republicans would pounce on Obama's confessions of cocaine and marijuana use.Which upset Clinton even more, I am nearly certain. Dowd misses Obama's airport tiff with Governor Jindal, which I think is even more telling. It's almost as if Obama has trouble getting along with independent women and visible minorities. Or perhaps it's just people who don't idolize him. (Does Obama know that a man putting his hand on a woman's arm when they are quarreling is almost certain to make her even more angry? If so, then he was deliberately trying to provoke both women. If he doesn't know that controlling gesture is offensive in those situations, he is even more ignorant than I thought. Dowd adds a bunch of politically correct nonsense about Brewer and Arizona's immigration enforcement, but you can ignore that.) - 7:41 AM, 29 January 2012
[link] ArchivesJune 2002July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002, Part 1 and Part 2 November 2002, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 December 2002, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 January 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 February 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 March 2003, Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3 April 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 May 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 June 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 July 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 August 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 September 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 October 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 November 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 December 2003, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 January 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 February 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 March 2004, Part 1 Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 April 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 May 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 June 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 July 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 August 2004, Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and Part 4 September 2004, Part 1, Part 2. 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